The leading economic indicators are painting both a light and dark picture. The US central bank (Fed) is sitting on its hands for now and has confirmed its existing pathway of restrictive monetary policy. This constellation is weighing on equities. US technology stocks are leading the global equities sell-off. Government bonds are appreciating strongly. Our basis scenario remains unchanged.

The first half of 2024 delivered solid returns for equity investors in particular. For bond investments, rising interest rates were a mixed blessing. US technology stocks continued to dominate global equity markets.

Equity markets consolidated over the summer months. The prospect of an economic downturn gave rise to uncertainty. Capital market interest rates barely declined, despite perceptible concerns over the development of the economy and lower rates of inflation. In the US, interest rates actually rose significantly. This environment opens up investment opportunities.