Portfolio September 2023
Equity markets consolidated over the summer months. The prospect of an economic downturn gave rise to uncertainty. Capital market interest rates barely declined, despite perceptible concerns over the development of the economy and lower rates of inflation. In the US, interest rates actually rose significantly. This environment opens up investment opportunities.
We are convinced that the world’s developed economies are now in the late stage of the economic cycle. Over the next few quarters, we expect global economic growth to prove very low. Various leading indicators show that restrictive monetary policy on the part of central banks is choking economic momentum. Inflation rates can be expected to fall back towards the kind of levels targeted by central banks by the end of the year. Our base scenario can be summed up in a few words: economic slowdown, declining inflation, restrictive monetary policy.
So what does all this mean for the market environment and investors? You’ll find our assessment here.