“Hold on to your hats!” was the title of our outlook for 2025. Looking back, it was indeed an exceptionally turbulent year characterised by falling interest rates, tariff shocks, growing doubts about the stability of US government finances and the dollar, plus increased decoupling of AI technology and the real economy. Once again, staying calm was the right approach. The situation as we head into 2026 is constructive. We expect further growth across all key economic regions, although momentum will vary significantly from region to region. Additional rate cuts are conceivable in the US, Europe, and potentially Switzerland too. The geopolitical situation is likely to be calmer, although the US will remain a wildcard in what is a midterm election year. The AI investment boom is continuing. At the same time, we expect greater volatility and sector rotation. A broad-based portfolio is therefore a must. Above all: “Keep your eyes open!” – 2026 will offer further attractive opportunities; and “Keep your ears closed!” – political noise and crash predictions should not deflect us from our course.

The leading economic indicators are painting both a light and dark picture. The US central bank (Fed) is sitting on its hands for now and has confirmed its existing pathway of restrictive monetary policy. This constellation is weighing on equities. US technology stocks are leading the global equities sell-off. Government bonds are appreciating strongly. Our basis scenario remains unchanged.

The first half of 2024 delivered solid returns for equity investors in particular. For bond investments, rising interest rates were a mixed blessing. US technology stocks continued to dominate global equity markets.

Equity markets consolidated over the summer months. The prospect of an economic downturn gave rise to uncertainty. Capital market interest rates barely declined, despite perceptible concerns over the development of the economy and lower rates of inflation. In the US, interest rates actually rose significantly. This environment opens up investment opportunities.