With the victory of Donald Trump, the balance of power in the US Congress for the next four years has been clarified: everything is now in place for a basically business-friendly policy in the US. The global rate-cutting cycle continues, and the SNB is sending a clear signal against deflationary risks. The ECB is also easing, with the Fed likely to follow suit. This situation should be viewed as fundamentally positive for the financial markets and for the start of the new year.

Over the last few months, the financial markets have repeatedly reacted to fluctuations in the latest polls on the 2024 US presidential election – particularly after the challenger on the Republican side turned out to be Donald Trump. With the withdrawal from the race of incumbent President Joe Biden and the nomination of Kamala Harris, the outcome of the election was thrown wide open again. A neck-and-neck race had long been on the cards. As of yesterday, we know that Donald Trump will be the next occupant of the White House. The Senate too will fall into Republican hands, whereas the composition of the House of Representatives will not be known for some weeks yet.

Donald Trump is gaining on Kamala Harris again. In a few days’ time, the US electorate will choose who they want to sit in the White House for the next four years, as well as deciding the balance of power in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Tension and volatility look a given here. But investors shouldn’t lose their cool in this situation.