The leading economic indicators painted a chiaroscuro picture in August. The US central bank (Fed) remained unmoved and stuck to its restrictive monetary policy. This combination triggered quite a rollercoaster ride for stock markets. Our basis scenario is still unchanged: we remain overweight in equities.
The attention of the investment community is gradually turning to the US elections. The first TV debate confirmed existing expectations of the quality of the candidates. Away from the cameras, rates of inflation continue to develop constructively. Both equities and bonds have benefited from this development. Swiss investors have experienced something of a headwind given the stronger Swiss franc.
The third quarter of 2023 was characterised by turbulence of varying kinds. Further rises in key interest rates weighed on bond investments and the likelihood of an economic downturn acted as a drag on equity prices, while at the start of October the terror attacks in Israel dragged geopolitics back to centre stage.
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